Please join us for the next INCOSE NZ Meet-up presentation

Topic: Civilisational resilience to global catastrophes

Presenter: Dr. David Denkenberger (Director at the Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED))

Abstract: A number of catastrophes could block the sun, including comet impact, super volcanic eruption, and nuclear war with the burning of cities (nuclear winter). These have a combined likelihood of ~1 in 10 per century, and there would be a near complete loss of agriculture with billions of people starving given current preparedness. Less severely, the literature suggests there is an ~80% chance this century of a 10% global agricultural shortfall due to catastrophes such as abrupt climate change or extreme weather causing multiple breadbasket failures. This could cause hundreds of millions of deaths.

It is technically feasible to feed everyone in these scenarios by ramping up food that is not dependent on sunlight. Mechanisms include: natural gas-consuming single cell protein, extracting food from leaves, and converting fibre to sugar. Several catastrophes could disrupt electricity over large areas, including an extreme solar storm, coordinated cyber attack, detonation of nuclear weapons at high altitude causing electromagnetic pulses, or extreme pandemic where people are unable or unwilling to show up to work at critical industries. David will discuss backup plans for meeting basic needs without modern infrastructure. There will also be content on reducing disease transmission in an extreme pandemic.

Presenter Bio: Dr. David Denkenberger received his B.S. from Penn State in Engineering Science, his masters from Princeton in Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, and his Ph.D. from the University of Colorado at Boulder in the Building Systems Program. His dissertation was on his patented expanded microchannel heat exchanger. He is an associate professor at University of Canterbury. He co-founded and is a director at the Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED) and donates half his income to it. He received the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship, is a Penn State distinguished alumnus, and is a registered professional engineer. He has authored or co-authored 155 publications (most prolific author in the existential/global catastrophic risk field), including the book Feeding Everyone no Matter What: Managing Food Security after Global Catastrophe. His food work has been featured in over 25 countries, over 300 popular articles. He has given over 80 interviews/external presentations, including ones on resilience at Harvard University, MIT, Princeton University, University of Cambridge, and University of Oxford.

 Zoom Details

https://incose-org.zoom.us/j/86755658207?pwd=YgoXG4nrO6zVjaaxn9Qsn7MRpDoQWz.1

• Meeting ID: 867 5565 8207

• Passcode: 154784